Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 1.798562 1.897496 2.000827 2.117132 2.244799 2.381127 2.538319
2025-10-05 1.674409 1.815476 1.969626 2.151841 2.363023 2.602178 2.896576
2025-10-12 1.597372 1.764208 1.952255 2.182374 2.459887 2.788504 3.214574
2025-10-19 1.537196 1.722752 1.937155 2.207089 2.543693 2.958015 3.520870
2025-10-26 1.471829 1.668470 1.900178 2.198643 2.581205 3.067719 3.756037
2025-11-02 1.415296 1.620087 1.865491 2.187956 2.611495 3.166310 3.981575
2025-11-09 1.358076 1.567055 1.820978 2.160245 2.615190 3.226637 4.155897
2025-11-16 1.306482 1.518053 1.778269 2.131115 2.613172 3.276431 4.316693
2025-11-23 1.272865 1.489701 1.759793 2.131772 2.650182 3.381858 4.570326
2025-11-30 1.248890 1.472189 1.753885 2.148008 2.708625 3.521238 4.891727
2025-12-07 1.209045 1.432477 1.716892 2.119339 2.700351 3.559233 5.049410
2025-12-14 1.167636 1.389188 1.673307 2.079117 2.672299 3.563882 5.149100
2025-12-21 1.129349 1.349343 1.633608 2.043553 2.650539 3.578940 5.273309
2025-12-28 1.117882 1.344422 1.640603 2.074218 2.729473 3.760252 5.724207
2026-01-04 1.106608 1.339119 1.646513 2.103094 2.806859 3.945187 6.211492
2026-01-11 1.094131 1.331596 1.648797 2.126360 2.876429 4.122716 6.714961
2026-01-18 1.072090 1.310265 1.630854 2.118409 2.895099 4.212489 7.048679
2026-01-25 1.050632 1.289035 1.612211 2.108346 2.909326 4.294921 7.380140
2026-02-01 1.025265 1.261679 1.583917 2.082243 2.895220 4.323684 7.592289
2026-02-08 1.000735 1.234844 1.555531 2.054791 2.877178 4.343318 7.785979
2026-02-15 0.985928 1.221147 1.545584 2.055411 2.906637 4.455819 8.232525
2026-02-22 0.976185 1.214227 1.545139 2.070713 2.962050 4.623956 8.863042
2026-03-01 0.954619 1.190065 1.518726 2.043690 2.941480 4.637542 9.073989